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Enlarge Graph
Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads:
Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled
versus year
(graph is not zero-indexed)

This is staggering news: according to data supplied by the FHWA, the long, steady growth in vehicle miles traveled has ended. We have hit the point where fuel prices have knocked out our growing traffic demand.

All transportation plans assuming a steady growth in highway traffic need to be re-examined.

Source: FHWA February 2008 Traffic Volume Trends Report (the graph is page 9 of 10 on the PDF).

UPDATE: With some digging, I was able to find what this metric looked like during the 1979 "oil shock". However, the 1979 shock was temporary. There is no reason that oil prices will retreat like they did in the 1980s. Click here for the graph at FHWA.

UPDATE #2: To understand why high oil prices are here to stay, check out Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production (WSJ, Nov 19th, 2007, Page 1, Column A) (google around a bit for a version not behind their paywall).

UPDATE #3: Businessweek - Not Guzzling Quite So Much Gas.

UPDATE #4: a forum comment at The Oil Drum explains the price elasticity of gasoline, & gets to the heart of the matter.

CART regularly makes claims that leave the public going "huh?".  That's because we're reading the wonky research that's recommending no new roads, higher gas taxes, increased investment in rail, and increased investment in public transit.  So here is our bibliography:

by David Coyte, edited by David Morse

Our business community needs to take a deep breath and face the economic realities that now, and for the foreseeable future, will grip our economy. It is time to detach ourselves from the obsolete policies of Greater Louisville, INC (GLI) and examine what will truly serve us in this century. No where is this more important than in our consideration of the Bridges Project.

"the John Henry issue"

• 8664 to speak at quarterly meeting
• Safe Streets Louisville
• Anti Bridge Strategy
• Study: Americans Want 40 Miles Per Gallon Law
• Ethanol Fuels Hunger
• Transit Oriented Development
• Activist Moves Mountain, Literally