Jerry, Barry, & contingency Transit planning through Peak Oil

They mayor & Barry Barker took time out from the ped summit banquet to address our current situation with TARC funding.

Recall that as fuel prices rise yet occupational tax stays flat, TARC is cutting routes. For example this year they're trying to decide between two options, both of them hitting working people squarely in the chest:

  • raise fares $0.10 and cut $1 million in service
  • raise fares $0.25 and cut $0.5 million in service

CART in general wants more money for public transit, but most especially we want public transit to get automatically funded more when fuel prices increase. This makes sense for two reasons:

  1. TARC's expenses are closely linked to fuel prices.
  2. Demands for TARC's service rises when automobiles are priced out of people's reach.

Both men were concerned about the situation, but as you'd expect didn't have any quick fixes handy - or they'd already have used them. Barry clarified that TARC's operational funding - paying drivers & gasoline - comes from the following sources:

  • 60% local occupational tax (0.2% of occupational tax, IIRC)
  • 20% federal
  • 17% farebox

None of those scale with demand, except farebox, and it's hard to make a profit on that because TARC is the most affordable mobility for many people - it's a regressive tax on the poor.

We quickly reviewed the other ways to fund transit, but came up with nothing:

  • KY State Legislature is busy trying to walk & chew gum at the same time
  • Local Sales Tax "can't do it, yet"

Here's some stuff I remembered later:

  • Tax overlays, ala museum plaza
  • Ending subsidies for parking, instead charging a "sin tax" on parking.
  • Pegging the transit/road ratio of local or MPO funds to the price of fuel. When gas prices rise, roads are used less, and they should theoretically need maintenance at a slower rate. Put that money into the alternatives people are actually using.

Note that I'm not so worried about this summer's rate hikes. I'm worried about what's going to happen when we hit peak oil in 2012. Last year oil was $62 / barrel. Now it's $126, over double. Is it linear? Is it geometric? Who cares? We need a way to automatically react to changing needs of our community.

The current TARC funding model will result in a death-spiral of service cuts and fare hikes, and has the potential to lead to civil unrest. When the automobile becomes lawn art, it would be nice if the city planners had, y'know, a plan.

Comments

Peak Oil

We will only know peak oil has arrived when we see it in the rearview mirror.  ie, when we have already passed it.  Many energy experts believe that the peak may have been reached in May, 2005, when world oil production reached an apparent zenith with very little fluctuation since.  we may be on the "plateau" of oil production.  Kinda like heading for the cliff and realizing the brakes are out!

Light rail

Even worse is that there is no planning for light rail. 50 cities in the US have light rail under way or under construction or almost under construction....which means they also have Transit Oriented Development underway which will ensure a Smart Growth low energy lifestyle.  We choose to spend $4 billion on 2 bridges and growing Spaghetti Junction which proliferates sprawl while our competitors spend money on light rail. 

For as sprawl-oriented as Austin historically has been,  light rail starts up there this fall. And the transit planning is coordinated with energy planning and community planning such that Austin will accommodate double digit growth rates for the next 30 years while planning to have energy consumption rise as flatly as possible.

Charlotte, NC has light rail operating now with more on the way.  Ridership ahead of projections. Positive acceptance by the public.

Our competitors are winning and we fall farther behind.  It is a basic question of leadership and economic development.

If we are not one of the 50 cities proceeding with light rail, we will not be one of the top 50 cities.  So much for being the 16th largest city in the country.

Mark Isaacs AIA

Architect/Builder

Legacy Homes

PS: Btw, our Legacy Lofts, where heating, cooling and hot water are calculated to cost under $10 per home per month, has just been named the National Green Multifamily Building of the Year by the National Assn of Homebuilders.