cartky.org

Peak oil talks about the amount of oil produced. It doesn't tell us anything about the future price of oil. A short paper at the Oil Drum looks at the price of "mined" commodities through their peak and decline years.

They mayor & Barry Barker took time out from the ped summit banquet to address our current situation with TARC funding.

Recall that as fuel prices rise yet occupational tax stays flat, TARC is cutting routes. For example this year they're trying to decide between two options, both of them hitting working people squarely in the chest:

ridetarc.org news release:

The TARC Board of Directors today gave tentative approval of a $68 million budget for Fiscal Year 2009 that includes a combination of fare increases and service reductions. The board considered several options for making up a $4 million shortfall resulting from rising gas prices and other costs before giving tentative approval to the budget proposal.

Under the proposed budget reviewed today, the base fare of $1.25 would increase by 10 cents and $1 million in service would be cut. The board recommended considering an increase to 25 cents and reducing the amount service that would be cut. If the fare increases to $1.50, about $500,000 in service cuts would be made.

“We don’t like increasing fares and we don’t like cutting service. It’s not the direction we want to go in,” said TARC Director J. Barry Barker. “But when you don’t have enough revenue, you have to do something.”

CART To REACT,

Developing...

via The Oil Drum, Falls-Church News Gazette:

In recent weeks, airlines around the world have been reporting substantial losses, declaring bankruptcy or completely shutting down. So far the losses have been mostly of small airlines, but many of the large ones have started to thrash around for merger partners. At $3.71 a gallon, jet fuel is now the single largest expense an airline faces.

In 2000, the airlines fuel bill was $14 billion. It is now pushing $60 billion and climbing. Southwest, the most profitable carrier, recently announced that this year’s fuel bill will be $500 million more than last year and equal to 2007 profits. During the first quarter of 2008 American airlines lost $328 million; Delta lost $274 million; United lost $537 million; Continental $80 million; Northwest $191 million; and US Airways $236 million. Only Southwest Airlines, which did a better job of hedging its fuel than the others, made a profit.

It is clear we are going to see major changes in air travel shortly.

...

Airlines are continuing to raise fares -- the average ticket is up 10 percent over last year -- but at some price point the airlines will drive away discretionary travel and they will be left with only essential business and personal travel that is unlikely to fill many planes. On top of the fuel prices is the current economic downturn which is likely to start impacting discretionary travel before the year is out. In short, airplanes simply can’t make money while charging affordable fares at current, much less prospective, fuel prices. The era of 500 mph travel for most people is nearly over.

Enlarge Graph
Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads:
Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled
versus year
(graph is not zero-indexed)

This is staggering news: according to data supplied by the FHWA, the long, steady growth in vehicle miles traveled has ended. We have hit the point where fuel prices have knocked out our growing traffic demand.

All transportation plans assuming a steady growth in highway traffic need to be re-examined.

Source: FHWA February 2008 Traffic Volume Trends Report (the graph is page 9 of 10 on the PDF).

UPDATE: With some digging, I was able to find what this metric looked like during the 1979 "oil shock". However, the 1979 shock was temporary. There is no reason that oil prices will retreat like they did in the 1980s. Click here for the graph at FHWA.

UPDATE #2: To understand why high oil prices are here to stay, check out Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production (WSJ, Nov 19th, 2007, Page 1, Column A) (google around a bit for a version not behind their paywall).

UPDATE #3: Businessweek - Not Guzzling Quite So Much Gas.

UPDATE #4: a forum comment at The Oil Drum explains the price elasticity of gasoline, & gets to the heart of the matter.

Good editorial at the Washington Post.

[W]e call upon Congress to revisit recently enacted federal mandates requiring the diversion of foodstuffs for production of biofuels. These "food-to-fuel" mandates were meant to move America toward energy independence and mitigate global climate change. But the evidence irrefutably demonstrates that this policy is not delivering on either goal. In fact, it is causing environmental harm and contributing to a growing global food crisis.

Gas tax, in cents per gallon, is starting to come under fire. How are we to maintain our roads if everyone switches to plug-in electric cars? Although this may seem like an absurdly far-off event to worry about, Oregon is already exerimenting with taxing motorists per-mile. That's silly too, since it ads no incentive to conserve gasoline.

I asked "What would a completely fair tax of motor vehicles look like?" Taxing people for the road damage they cause, the carbon & other pollutants they emit, and the threat they pose to others should all be considered. This is the answer I received:

"Robert Zubrin is best known for his daring "Mars Direct" plan, but his most recent book, Energy Victory: Winning the War on Terror by Breaking Free of Oil is set a lot closer to home.  His proposal on solving America's oil addition is simple -- some critics would say too simple.  Here's what Dr. Zubrin has to say."

The interview at Daily Kos is interesting. Basically, he's advocating Congress make all new vehicles sold in the US be required to be flex fuel. While he concedes that American-made corn ethanol is basically a sham, he still sees an opportunity by increasing the number of countries capable to produce motor-vehicle fuel. Who would you rather see get your Ethanol buck?: Iran or Brazil?

What do you think about his analysis?

The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission has provided it's report to Congress.  At my first reading, this report merely looked like a treasure trove of handy quotes endorsing CART's vision.  For example:

the "TARCettes" issue

• CART Quarterly Meeting Next Wednesday
• Relaunched CART Website
• Talk by John Cullen This Wednesday
• How Do I Stop Courier-Journal Yard Litter?
• Pedestrian Summit Planning Heats Up
• Transit Needs Your Phone Call for Kentucky Legislature Funding
• Ohio River Bridges Under-Financed, Fight Moves to Tolls
• Mr. Theo & The TARCettes Perform Musical Bike Rack Demo
• Editorial: Are you more mobile than a 14 year old girl?
• Editorial: Twenty First Century Reality Check
• Study: Americans Prefer Transit to Roads